Blue Jays' Anthopoulos building on youth

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07/16/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When your pockets aren't deep and you live in the American League East, you need to do things a little differently. With a new general manager in town, it seems as though the Toronto Blue Jays have finally come to understand that motto.

It's been less than one year since Alex Anthopoulos replaced J.P Ricciardi as GM of the Blue Jays and he's looked anything but a man in his early 30's in his first year on the job.

Although their record may not indicate it at 44-45, Anthopoulos has brought an optimism of hope back to the club despite playing in a division that features the three best teams in the American League. The task left for him was not easy either, as he had the responsibility of unloading the franchise's greatest pitcher, Roy Halladay.

Anthopoulos took over with a vision that, at this point, most Torontonians can probably feel comfortable trusting after living through eight years of Ricciardi's five-year plan. Nobody said it would be easy, especially when the Jays have to look up to AL East behemoths New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, but Anthopoulos has executed his plan well.

He's building through youth and high-ceiling, high-potential types of players. A few of those pieces were already in place, but the new GM has done a solid job supplementing the existing talent.

A look at some of the key moves made by Anthopoulos:

Anthopoulos stepped into a tough spot - despite being the assistant GM before taking over the role - as he would become the man responsible for trading away the best player on the roster. He went to work quickly, landing the Jays three very good prospects in starting pitcher Kyle Drabek, catcher Travis d'Arnaud and outfielder Michael Taylor from the Philadelphia Phillies. Taylor was immediately shipped to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for Brett Wallace, the future first basemen of the Jays who already has played for three organizations during his brief span in the minor leagues.

While it's impossible to replace Halladay's arm and work ethic, but this type of return could prove to be a success for years to come. All three players made their respective minor league All-Star games this season, and Wallace and Drabek are on a fast track to the majors. Wallace did not participate in the Pacific Coast League's All-Star Game (Triple-A) due to a wrist injury, but his teammate Jarrett Hoffpauir, someone Anthopoulos also snatched up in the offseason, took his spot. Hoffpauir has seen a little bit of time this season, appearing with the big club in nine games.

The youth movement continued by way of the draft this past June, as Anthopoulos selected a little bit of everything, starting with a polished college arm and continuing with some high-potential prospects and homegrown talent. He made a point of targeting pitching, using his first four picks to select right-handers Deck McGuire, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard and Asher Wojciechowski as well as capitalizing on Canadian-born talent. The most intriguing of which is Ontario-native Marcus Knecht, who batted .472 with 16 homers at Connors State College last year.

As much as Anthopoulos has concentrated on a youth movement, the team entered the season with several holes still to fill. Although his offseason signings didn't appear to be significant at the time, even the most optimistic of supporters couldn't have foreseen the production the Jays gotten from their additions. Catcher John Buck is enjoying his finest season and fresh off his first All-Star game, shortstop Alex Gonzalez is on his way to a career year and Kevin Gregg, despite being shaky at times, has converted 20-of-23 save opportunities.

Gonzalez, who hit 17 home runs and drove in 50 runs in the first half, was never part of the long-term plan, which is why his trade to the Atlanta Braves came as no surprise. The five-player deal was essentially a swap for shortstops, where the Braves were more concerned with the now and the Jays for the future, as they are willing to let Yunel Escobar play through his current struggles. Although he's having a down year, the 27-year-old still has plenty of upside and is coming off a fine 2009 season, when he hit .299 with 14 homers and 76 RBIs - the later numbers career highs. If Escobar, who is hitting .238 with no home runs, doesn't bounce back, the Jays also have Cuban Adeiny Hechavarria, an offseason acquisition who is currently playing in the minor leagues but projects to be the shortstop of the future.

The biggest steals for the Jays have come in the form of outfielder Fred Lewis and starting pitcher Brandon Morrow. Lewis was acquired from the San Francisco Giants at the beginning of the season and has turned out to be a complete success. The 29-year-old is batting .276, leading the team with 10 stolen bases and has become a fan favorite in Toronto.

Morrow, on the other hand, has finally found a role, as he's not only firmly entrenched in the Jays' rotation, he's quite possibly the future ace of the staff. He still needs to string together more consistency, but has shown flashes of dominance during his first year as a Blue Jay. He came over to Toronto in an offseason trade with Seattle.

There's a lot of hope for the Blue Jays moving forward, with Anthopoulos steering the ship into a deep pool of youth. Toronto already has a surplus of young players thriving in the big leagues, led by a rotation whose oldest member is 28-year-old Shaun Marcum. It goes without saying that Anthopoulos has done an exceptional job and has the Jays heading in a positive direction.

For the fans, this team has become a breath of fresh of air. This truly is a new era for Blue Jays baseball.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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