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12/20/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Finally, for the first time in a month, New England played the elusive near-flawless game. The 40-7 blowout may have come against the four-win Texans, but the NFL will allow Bill Belichick's team to list the game in the left column nonetheless.
The last time the Pats won a game like this was when they pasted Green Bay, 35-0, on November 19, and let's face it, the Packers aren't the cream of the NFL crop either.
The opponent may not have been impressive, but the fact that New England thoroughly dominated an NFL team minus its most explosive running back Laurence Maroney (back), its leading pass-catcher, Benjamin Watson (knee), and the center spot of its vaunted defensive line, Vince Wilfork (ankle), was something about which to marvel.
Houston was never in the game, as the Patriots won the turnover battle, picking off David Carr four times, highlighted by Asante Samuel's eighth interception of the season in the fourth quarter, tying him with Denver's Champ Bailey for the league lead.
New England, which didn't turn the ball over after coughing it up 11 times in the three previous games, scored 16 points off Texans turnovers. The Pats were only penalized two times for 10 yards, which was the fewest amount of penalties since the Week 1 Buffalo win, when they were flagged only once for five yards.
"That was a real good, solid team victory for us today," said Belichick. "We're real happy to win. Happy at the way we played. I thought, field position wise, it was kind of the reversal of what we saw last week where [today] we had the ball pretty much of their side of the 50 the whole first half. That was a lot different from what we saw down there in Miami."
Tom Brady completed 16-of-23 passes for 109 yards with a pair of touchdowns, while Kevin Faulk made two trips to the end zone, including a screen pass that went 43 yards for a 17-0 margin. Ellis Hobbs also returned a kickoff 93 yards for a TD, and picked off a pass.
"He was constantly in practice putting pressure on us to prepare well, to ask questions in front of the entire team and make sure we know the opponent we are playing," said Brady referring to Belichick's approach after getting shut out by Miami. "We haven't played these guys in a while. The execution in practice has to continue to pick up. He is very tough on us, especially after a loss. This team responded to it and we will see where we go from here."
After giving up only seven points to the Texans, New England foes are averaging just 13.79 points per game. The Patriots are making a run at eclipsing the franchise single-season record set in 2003, when they allowed 14.88 points per outing.
New England put 17 quick points in the board in the opening frame, which tied its highest single-quarter total of the season. The Pats scored 17 points in the fourth quarter of a 38-13 win against Cincinnati on October 1.
"We started off fast and we kind of finished strong," continued Brady. "We played for 60 minutes. That was really what we needed. That is a pressure defense and I think our offensive line really handled it and ran the ball well. I wish we had had a few more plays in the passing game, but when you are up by however many points it was, I think everyone enjoyed it."
The Patriots' 27 first-half points were their most since scoring 28 points in the first half of a 35-28 victory over the Bengals on December 12, 2004. They also put together their fourth first-half shutout of the season, and recorded their seventh half of scoreless football.
"We definitely needed a win," said linebacker Tully Banta-Cain, who had two of the four New England sacks. "It's a confidence thing but we're not satisfied yet. We're still not where we want to be. We're going to keep working."
They reached the 40-point plateau for the first time since besting Pittsburgh, 41-27, in the 2004 AFC Championship on January 23, 2005. The last time they scored at least 40 in the regular season was against Cleveland in a 42-15 victory on December 5, 2004. This was only the second time New England put 40 points on the board at Gillette Stadium, after tallying 41 points in a 41-38 overtime victory over Kansas City Chiefs on September 22, 2002.
Bottom line is that the Pats reversed a growing trend of making mistakes, but they still need to do it against a respectable team. They'll get that chance when they play Jacksonville on Sunday.
PLAYOFF PICTURE
The Pats have a two-game lead over the New York Jets for the AFC East top spot, and still hold the No. 4 seed in the AFC with two games to play. They can clinch their fourth straight division title with a win against Jacksonville. The Patriots would have to win out and Indianapolis and Baltimore would both have to lose their final two games to reverse positions. Indy plays at Houston and versus Miami, while the Ravens finished the campaign at Pittsburgh and home for Buffalo. The Colts hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, and if Baltimore and New England are tied, the team with the best conference record gets the high seeding (currently 8-2 for the Ravens compared to 6-4 for the Pats).
PATS TIDBITS
-The victory was the 16th in Patriots history by at least 33 points, and was the largest in the brief history of Gillette Stadium (2002).
-The Patriots are 4-1 when wearing their silver jerseys.
-Stephen Gostkowski was 4-for-4 on field goals and 4-for-4 on extra points, becoming the first Patriots kicker to make eight combined kicks in a game since Adam Vinatieri accomplished the feat on November 7, 2004.
-In the Bill Belichick era, the Pats are 21-6 in December, including victories in 14 of the last 16 contests. Brady is 19-4 in the final month of the year.
-The last time the Patriots had scored 17 points in the first quarter of a game was on Dec. 8, 2002, in a 27-17 victory over the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium.
-New England has won 10 or more games in four straight, five of the last six and eight of the last 13 seasons since Robert Kraft bought the franchise in 1994. The Patriots are the only team in the NFL to win nine or more regular- season games in each season since 2001.
NEXT UP: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE
The Patriots close out the regular-season with a pair of road games, and that stretch begins in Jacksonville (8-6), where the Jaguars are fighting for a playoff berth. New England will return to the site where they won Super Bowl XXXIX, 24-21, against Philadelphia.
These two teams meet for the first time since a 28-3 blowout win in last season's AFC Wild Card game. New England leads the all-time series, 5-1, with the Jaguars' lone win coming in the 1998 AFC Wild Card game (25-10).
<< Clippers, Raptors meet at Staples Center
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Clippers try to put the brakes on a four-
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This is the first of two meetings between the clubs this season. The Rapto
<< Nuggets hope they have the answer against the red-hot Suns
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Nuggets are hopeful that they will have Allen
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Center.
The Nuggets made a blockbuster move on Tuesday when they acquired
Iver
<< Heat try to extend winning streak vs. Bucks
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat attempt to extend their winning streak to
three games, as they visit the Milwaukee Bucks tonight at the Bradley Center.
On Monday, All-Star Dwyane Wade banked in the game-winning jump shot with 1.3
seconds
<< Spurs host Grizzlies
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top team in the West meets the worst club in the
conference, as the San Antonio Spurs host Southwest Division-rival Memphis
tonight at the AT&T Center.
The Spurs are in first place in the Southwest Division, while the
Status Quo for Lions >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Lions have never beaten Brett Favre in Lambeau
Field, and despite the veteran quarterback's three interceptions, nothing
changed this past Sunday. Detroit lost for the 12th time this season (and
seventh time in se
Bobcats, Knicks battle at MSG >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Knicks continue their homestand tonight when
they welcome the Charlotte Bobcats to Madison Square Garden.
New York is 1-1 on the homestand and defeated Utah, 97-96, in overtime on
Monday night. Stephon Marbu
Nets continue homestand vs. Cavs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets continue their homestand tonight
as they welcome the Cleveland Cavaliers to town for a battle at Continental
Airlines Arena.
New Jersey is 1-1 on its four-game homestand and defeated Golden State by a
Jets keep hope alive in Minnesota >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - "Just when I thought that I was out, they pull me back in."
There is not much to like, or remember, about Godfather III, but Michael
Corleone's signature line in that movie pretty much sums up my feelings
towards the New Y
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
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