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07/13/2010 - Madison, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Sprint Cup Series takes a break this weekend, the Nationwide and Camping World Truck Series compete at Gateway International Raceway near St. Louis. The IZOD IndyCar Series runs on the streets of Toronto.
NASCAR
Nationwide Series
Missouri-Illinois Dodge Dealers 250 - Gateway Int'l Raceway - Madison, IL
The Nationwide Series rolls into the "Gateway to the West" for the start of the second half of the 2010 season. With 18 of 35 races completed, Brad Keselowski heads to Gateway International Raceway, located just outside of St. Louis, with a commanding 227-point lead over Carl Edwards.
Keselowski's 21st-place finish coupled with a seventh-place run for Edwards in last Friday race at Chicagoland allowed Edwards to trim 50 points off of Keselowski's lead.
Edwards and Keselowski, along with Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Paul Menard, Michael McDowell, Joe Nemechek and Reed Sorenson, are those Sprint Cup Series regulars spending their off-weekend at Gateway.
One year ago, Kyle Busch added Gateway to his list of different tracks where he has won a Nationwide race. Busch benefited from Harvick's late-race misfortune, as Harvick ran out of fuel and handed the lead over to Busch with 29 laps remaining. He then held off Sorenson and Edwards in the closing laps for his sixth win of the season.
Busch will not defend his race title at Gateway. Brad Coleman will take over driving duties in the No.18 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing this weekend.
Keselowski's best finish in three Nationwide starts at Gateway is fifth, which came in 2008. When Keselowski competed here for the first time three years ago, he finished 26th in his just his second start for Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Nationwide team JR Motorsports.
This is Keselowski's first year with Penske Racing.
Edwards, Harvick and Sorenson have two victories each at Gateway. Earnhardt Jr. is the only other repeat winner here.
"I am looking forward to going to Gateway," Edwards said. "Those wins there to me are it. There are no wins that are bigger. Those wins there are as big as any of my Cup wins. I have a lot of folks that are going to come out to the race there, folks that don't get to go to the races a lot, but are good friends of mine."
For the fifth year in a row, Edwards will make his annual trek on bike from his hometown of Columbia, MO to the 1.25-mile Gateway track, which is located five miles northeast of downtown St. Louis.
"We are going to ride our bikes," he said "It is about 200 miles, and we have a pretty crazy crew coming. The first part is going to be a charity event. We are going to leave from Walt's Bicycle Shop in Columbia, and we are going to ride a really neat ride down to the Missouri River, where we will have a bunch of folks help raise some money for a friend of mine that needs help with some hospital bills."
Harvick has competed in four Nationwide races at Gateway, with two victories and three-top-10 finishes. He finished 17th in last year's race here.
"Gateway has been a great track to me over the years," Harvick said. "I have two wins in four Nationwide Series starts, and look forward to continuing that success this time around with the No.33 Jimmy Johns Chevrolet. Gateway is a very unique track with two completely different sets of corners, which makes for some great racing that the fans will enjoy."
Ryan Truex, who is a development driver for Michael Waltrip Racing and the younger brother of Sprint Cup regular and two-time Nationwide champion Martin Truex Jr., will make his series debut at Gateway. The 18-year-old Truex won the 2009 NASCAR K&N Pro Series East champion. He currently holds the points lead in that series.
"It is a really big opportunity, and I'm just excited to get started," Truex said. "I just can't thank everyone enough at MWR (Michael Waltrip Racing) for giving me this opportunity.
"Three years ago, I remember racing a Legend car at Wall Stadium in New Jersey, and now I'm here. It's hard to believe how fast it's come, but I'm excited, ready to get started and make the most of my opportunity."
Forty-nine teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Missouri-Illinois Dodge Dealers 250.
The series will race again at Gateway on October 23. It's the first year this track hosts two Nationwide events in the same season.
Camping World Truck Series
CampingWorld.com 200 - Gateway International Raceway - Madison, IL
The Camping World Truck Series join the Nationwide Series at Gateway International Raceway on the same weekend for the first time.
With the Sprint Cup Series taking a break this weekend, three series regulars -- Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Max Papis -- are entered in Friday's truck race at Gateway. Harvick and Keselowski also will compete in Saturday's Nationwide event here.
Rookie Austin Dillon is hoping his winning momentum will continue at Gateway. Dillon, the grandson of NASCAR multi-team owner Richard Childress and the son of Richard Childress Racing General Manager Mike Dillon, won his first career truck race in dominating fashion last Sunday at Iowa Speedway.
Dillon started on the pole and led 187 of 205 laps to claim his maiden victory in just his 12th truck start. He is the only member of the Childress family to win a race in one of NASCAR's top-three series. His grandfather's highest finish in 258 NASCAR starts was third at Nashville Speedway in 1978, while his father's best run in 154 starts was fourth, which came at Dover International Speedway in 1997 and Hickory Speedway the following year.
The 20-year-old Dillon has yet to compete at Gateway.
"I've been getting a few notes from dad, and some other people have been telling me about the track," Dillon said. "The way our equipment and trucks have been handling, I feel like there's no reason we shouldn't be able to go out there and run well. We might not be able to pick up as fast as we usually do in practice and make the adjustments we're able to make when we were fast right off the truck."
Dillon also set a record at Iowa by becoming the first rookie in the series to win three consecutive poles. Can he make it four poles in a row at Gateway?
"There's a good shot at it," he said. "Four in a row would be awesome. I don't know what the record is for the Truck Series for how many poles in a row, but I'd love to go for it."
Four drivers on the entry list -- Todd Bodine, Ron Hornaday Jr., Mike Skinner and David Starr -- have won a truck race at Gateway in the past. Ted Musgrave is the only driver with multiple truck wins here.
Skinner won last year's race at Gateway in the most unlikely circumstances. Matt Crafton spoiled Hornaday's opportunity for a dominating victory when Crafton spun him out just after a late-race restart. Hornaday hit the wall and slid down the track, with Jason Young slamming into the back of his truck.
Crafton took the lead, but NASCAR penalized him for rough driving. That allowed Skinner to take the lead for the first time. Skinner then held off Johnny Sauter in a green-white-finish for his third and final victory of the 2009 season.
"We won with a fourth-place truck, and at the end of the day when the smoke cleared, the No.5 was in victory lane," Skinner said. "I kept asking myself, 'How did this happen?' But I'll take it."
Hornaday, who led 116 of 162 laps, attempted to become the first driver to win a truck race at Gateway in consecutive years.
Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the CampingWorld.com 200.
IZOD INDYCAR SERIES
Honda Indy Toronto - Streets of Toronto - Toronto, Canada
The IZOD IndyCar Series heads to Canada this weekend for the second running of the Honda Indy Toronto on the streets of Toronto.
Two weeks ago, Watkins Glen, NY kicked off a string of five races on street/road courses. Edmonton, Canada, Mid-Ohio and Sonoma, CA are upcoming on the IndyCar schedule.
Will Power from Team Penske gave his title hopes a huge boost by winning at Watkins Glen. Power picked up his third victory of the season, but his first since March at St. Petersburg, FL. All three of his wins this year have come on street/road courses. He also is the only repeat winner in the series so far this season.
With the win, Power widened his lead from 11 points to 32 over Dario Franchitti, the defending series champion. Franchitti's Target Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon is 40 points behind. Ryan Briscoe sits fourth in points (-47), and Helio Castroneves holds the fifth spot (-54).
With eight races remaining, it looks as though it will be another tight battle for the IndyCar championship.
"No question it's more competitive than it's ever been," Power said. "It's going to be tight. It could come down to five people at the end of the year. It's that close with someone different winning every week."
Franchitti won last year's inaugural IndyCar race at Toronto. He recovered from a pit road mishap and then capitalized on a series of late-race crashes to capture the victory. It was Franchitti's third win of the season.
Power rebounded from an opening lap incident. He cut his right-rear tire after making contact with Graham Rahal heading into the first turn. Power fell almost one lap behind, but bounced back nicely for a third-place finish.
The win at Toronto allowed Franchitti to regain the points.
"For me, I just look at it one at a time, road course, oval, whatever it is," Franchitti said. "It means you have to be on top of your game, whether Toronto, Chicago or Homestead for the last race. You have to be absolutely on it. If you can't win, finish second."
Twenty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Honda Indy Toronto.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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